ADB trims Southeast Asia 2014 growth forecast to 4.6 pct
SINGAPORE, Sept 25 (Reuters) - The Asian Development Bank
(ADB) has trimmed its growth forecast for Southeast Asia this
year, citing factors such as political turmoil in Thailand
earlier in the year and weaker commodity export prices in
Indonesia.
In its update to the 2014 outlook, ADB said on Thursday that
Southeast Asia was now expected to grow 4.6 percent this year,
down slightly from its forecast in July of 4.7 percent and 5.0
percent forecast in April.
The ADB trimmed its 2014 growth forecasts for Indonesia,
Thailand, the Philippines, Vietnam and Singapore compared with
April, but raised its growth forecast for Malaysia to 5.7
percent from 5.1 percent, citing a rebound in the country's
exports.
The ADB said growth in Southeast Asia was likely to
accelerate in 2015 to 5.3 percent, although that was down from
its July and April forecasts for 5.4 percent growth.
"Next year, better performance in the major industrial
economies and Thailand's recovery from its slump will spur
Southeast Asian growth to 5.3 percent," it said.
The ADB kept its 2014 and 2015 growth forecasts for China
unchanged, saying growth was likely to slip to 7.5 percent this
year and 7.4 percent next year, compared with 7.7 percent in
2013.
"A shrinking workforce and a sluggish property sector will
tamp down growth...but economic stimulus and rising external and
internal demand are expected to contain the impact," it said,
referring to China.
The ADB kept its 2014 growth forecast for India unchanged at
5.5 percent.
It also maintained its upgraded 2015 growth forecast for
India of 6.3 percent unveiled in July, up from its April
forecast of 6.0 percent growth, citing expectations of economic
reform by Prime Minister Narendra Modi's new government.
The report is available on the ADB's website: www.adb.org
GDP GROWTH, pct Actual --Forecast--
Subregion/
Economy 2013* 2014 2015
-------------- --------
Sept July April Sept July April
CENTRAL ASIA 6.5 5.6 6.3 6.5 5.9 6.1 6.5
EAST ASIA 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7
China 7.7 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.4 7.4 7.4
SOUTH ASIA 4.7 5.4 5.4 5.3 6.1 6.1 5.8
India 4.7 5.5 5.5 5.5 6.3 6.3 6.0
SOUTHEAST ASIA 5.0 4.6 4.7 5.0 5.3 5.4 5.4
Indonesia 5.8 5.3 -- 5.7 5.8 -- 6.0
Malaysia 4.7 5.7 -- 5.1 5.3 -- 5.0
Philippines 7.2 6.2 -- 6.4 6.4 -- 6.7
Singapore 3.9 3.5 -- 3.9 3.9 -- 4.1
Thailand 2.9 1.6 -- 2.9 4.5 -- 4.5
Vietnam 5.4 5.5 -- 5.6 5.7 -- 5.8
THE PACIFIC 5.0 5.3 5.2 5.4 13.2 13.2 13.3
________________________________________________________________
DEVELOPING ASIA 6.1 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.4 6.4 6.4
INFLATION, pct Actual --Forecast--
Subregion/
Economy 2013* 2014 2015
--------------- --------
Sept July April Sept July April
CENTRAL ASIA 6.0 7.6 7.6 9.0 7.0 7.0 7.4
EAST ASIA 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.9 2.9 2.9
China 2.6 2.4 2.6 2.6 3.0 3.0 3.0
SOUTH ASIA 6.2 6.1 6.3 6.4 5.9 6.1 6.2
India 6.0 5.7 6.0 6.0 5.5 5.8 5.8
SOUTHEAST ASIA 4.2 4.1 4.3 4.3 4.7 4.0 4.0
Indonesia 6.4 5.8 -- 5.7 6.9 -- 4.8
Malaysia 2.1 3.3 -- 3.2 3.6 -- 3.5
Philippines 3.0 4.4 -- 4.3 4.1 -- 4.0
Singapore 2.4 2.0 -- 3.0 2.3 -- 2.9
Thailand 2.2 2.2 -- 2.4 2.6 -- 2.6
Vietnam 6.6 4.5 -- 6.2 5.5 -- 6.6
THE PACIFIC 4.5 4.5 4.5 5.9 4.5 4.5 5.1
________________________________________________________________
DEVELOPING ASIA 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.7
*Some 2013 figures have been revised
Source: ADB's Asian Development Outlook Supplement 2014
Central Asia: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz
Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan East Asia: China,
Hong Kong, South Korea, Mongolia, Taiwan South Asia:
Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal,
Pakistan, Sri Lanka
Southeast Asia: Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia,
Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam Pacific:
Fiji, Papua New Guinea, Timor-Leste, Cook Islands, Kiribati,
Marshall Islands, Federated States of Micronesia, Nauru, Palau,
Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga, Tuvalu, Vanuatu
(Reporting by Masayuki Kitano and Rosemarie Francisco; Editing
by Jacqueline Wong)
