Advertisement

AUD/USD March Outlook Hinges on RBA Forward-Guidance, 4Q GDP Report

DailyFX.com -

Talking Points:

- AUD/USD Retail Crowd Turns Net-Long Ahead of RBA Interest Rate Decision.

- USD/CAD Continuation Pattern Remains in Focus Going Into BoC Policy Meeting.

- USDOLLAR Breaks Resistance- Topside Targets Remain on Radar Despite Mixed U.S. Data.

For more updates, sign up for David's e-mail distribution list.

AUD/USD

AUD/USD Daily Chart
AUD/USD Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Despite the rate cut from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC), AUD/USD struggles to hold its ground ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting amid bets for another rate cut.

  • According to a Bloomberg News survey, 18 of the 29 economists polled forecast a 25bp rate cut, while overnight index swaps (OIS) show market participants are pricing a 59% chance for a further reduction .

  • Seeing increased volatility in the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) as retail crowd turns net-long AUD/USD coming into March, with the ratio currently holding at +1.04.

USD/CAD

USD/CAD Daily Chart
USD/CAD Daily Chart
  • USD/CAD may face a larger rebound going into the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) March 4 policy meeting as the pair preserves the continuation pattern & retains the near-term bearish RSI momentum; need a break of the triangle/wedge formation to favor fresh 2015 highs.

  • In light of recent comments from BoC Governor Stephen Poloz, the forward-guidance for monetary policy looks poised to heavily impact the Canadian dollar as it seems as though the central bank will keep the benchmark interest rate at 0.75% .

  • Waiting for a break/close above 1.2630 (23.6% expansion) or below 1.2345 (38.2% retracement) to dictate the near-term bias.

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates Across the Majors!

Read More:

Price & Time: GBP/USD Mixed Signals

Australian Dollar Spec Short Position is Largest Since January 2014

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

11855.42

11857.55

11826.05

0.26

58.92%

AUD/USD March Outlook Hinges on RBA Forward-Guidance, 4Q GDP Report
AUD/USD March Outlook Hinges on RBA Forward-Guidance, 4Q GDP Report
USDOLLAR Daily Chart
USDOLLAR Daily Chart

Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

  • Despite the slew of mixed data, outlook for Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar as it breaks above near-term resistance around 11,826 (61.8% expansion), while the RSI breakout continues to take shape.

  • May see waning expectations for a strong Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report as the ISM Manufacturing employment component continues to expand at a slower pace.

  • Will continue to favor the approach to ‘buy dips’ in the USDOLLAR especially on a close above 11,826, with the next region of interest coming in around 11,901 (78.6% expansion).

Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates!

Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

Personal Income (JAN)

13:30

0.4%

0.3%

Personal Spending (JAN)

13:30

-0.1%

-0.2%

Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator (MoM) (JAN)

13:30

-0.5%

-0.5%

Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator (YoY) (JAN)

13:30

0.2%

0.2%

Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (MoM) (JAN)

13:30

0.1%

0.1%

Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (MoM) (JAN)

13:30

1.3%

1.3%

Markit Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (FEB F)

14:45

54.3

52.9

ISM Manufacturing (FEB)

15:00

53.0

52.9

ISM Prices Paid (FEB)

15:00

37.5

35.0

Construction Spending (MoM) (JAN)

15:00

0.3%

-1.1%

Click Here for the DailyFX Calendar

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.

Trade Alongsidethe DailyFX Team on DailyFX on Demand

Looking to use the DailyFX Trade Signals LIVE? Check out Mirror Trader.

New to FX? Watch this Video

Join us to discuss the outlook for the major currencies on the DailyFXForums


original source

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.
Learn forex trading with a free practice account and trading charts from FXCM.