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Najib and the Bersih factor

It looks like another standoff is imminent between the authorities and protestors who want to use Dataran Merdeka as the venue for tomorrow's Bersih 3.0 sit-in.

As many have argued, the stakes are high - but for different reasons, depending on which perspective is taken.

The Government and the authorities appear to be using a "good cop, bad cop" routine in an effort to diffuse a situation that could potentially shift support towards the opposition in view of the impending general election.

Home Minister Datuk Seri Hishammuddin Hussein has said that the Government has no objection to the rally so long as they use any one of the alternative venues offered, which includes Stadium Merdeka, the venue denied to Bersih 2.0 protestors in July last year.

Kuala Lumpur City Hall however took a more drastic measure, declaring the historic square off limits for 48 hours until 6am on Sunday and warning protestors that the police will step in if they insist on converging on Dataran Merdeka.

It's quite likely that the lockdown on Dataran Merdeka is simply going to encourage protestors to hit the mattresses, just like how the ban on Bersih 2.0 caused simmering tensions to boil over.

What is not so obvious however is the power play that is happening within the ruling Barisan Nasional.

Sources close to Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak say that the turnout at Bersih 3.0's sit-in would be a definitive factor in deciding when the polls will be held.

The math would be that a low turnout with little controversy would give Najib the nudge to call for polls as soon as June.

If it instead turns out to be as big, or even bigger than Bersih 2.0, it is likely that the polls would again be put off until a time when the Prime Minister feels the ruling coalition has enough leverage to push for a two-thirds landslide victory.

The second possibility would work to Pakatan Rakyat's favour, with opposition insiders pointing out that they are nowhere close to finalising seat negotiations between the three partners.

A further delay in polls would give them the time to whack out their differences, and also find a compromise with non-Pakatan opposition parties, especially in the frontline state of Sabah.

Najib however faces the biggest dilemma in this predicament.

It's an open secret that the Prime Minister has little support from Umno warlords in his much touted transformation programme, considering that it would open up the domestic market and presumably deprive them of cushy multi-million ringgit projects, of which they are allegedly accustomed to receiving as gifts for their loyalty.

Because he has yet to lead the party into a general election as president, the pressure is on for him to reclaim the two-thirds majority Barisan lost while under the stewardship of his predecessor, Tun Abdullah Ahmad Badawi.

To convince his party members of his resolve, Najib had no choice but to put his neck out during the last party General Assembly and declare that it's a two-thirds Parliamentary majority or bust for him.

For any Umno leader burning with ambition, that declaration meant an opportunity to claim the coveted post of party president.

It's not too far-fetched for pretenders to the throne to simply keep Najib's reform plans at arm's length, and - by proxy of course - stirring up the electorate's disgruntlement against the Government.

So whichever way Bersih 3.0 goes, it's going to be rough seas for Najib and his political survival.

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