Catastrophic gridlock if air traffic congestion not dealt with, warns expert

Asia, including Malaysia and Singapore, may face massive flight delays in five years if countries in the region do not work together to deal with rising flight numbers, a report in the Straits Times (ST) said today.

Citing the head of a leading air traffic research institute, the report in the Singapore daily said this was because air traffic controllers would not be able to cope with additional flights.

Hsin Chen Chung, who heads the Air Traffic Management Research Institute at Nanyang Technological University (NTU), said countries could expect a "catastrophic gridlock" which will lead to stagnation in the number of flights in Asia.

"The situation right now is barely tolerable in some pockets of the region... If we don't do anything, my guess is that in five to 10 years, we will experience what Europe went through 15 years ago – catastrophic gridlock" he was reported as saying.

Hsin said some of the busiest routes facing congestion are from Singapore to Jakarta, Bangkok and Hong Kong; Bangkok to Hong Kong; and from Asia to Europe.

He said that with international and domestic air travel in Asia set to outpace growth elsewhere, there is growing global concern on how it would impact the region's air traffic management system.

The International Air Transport Association estimates that between last year and 2017, passenger traffic in the Asia-Pacific will grow by 5.7% a year, compared with 3.9% in Europe and 3.6% in North America, the ST report said.

The report cited industry experts as saying that a major problem is the reluctance of countries in the region to share information on air traffic capabilities and technology for fear of compromising national interests.

But as Andrew Herdman, director-general of the Association of Asia Pacific Airlines, pointed out, when carriers fly over multiple air traffic zones, it is important for different service providers to harmonise their procedures for a smooth handover.

Hsin, 67, who has a PhD in aviation (air traffic management) from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology said Europe's single sky concept, with air traffic controlled by one centre, is unlikely to work here due to this reluctance to share information.

However, countries can still push for common systems and procedures, and invest in technology that allows air traffic controllers to better track aircraft movements.

By so doing, the separation distance between planes, for example, can be reduced and more flights can be added, he said in the ST report.

The need for better coverage is critical as the disappearance of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 has shown. – September 15, 2014.