Up until three months ago, Chelsea and Atletico Madrid were two of the few teams to have won the Super Cup but not the big one itself. That changed when the Blues stunned Bayern Munich in their own stadium in May.
Chelsea showed a remarkable aptitude for getting the job done in cup ties last season and will no doubt view this contest in the same vein as Roberto Di Matteo targets his third trophy within six months of taking the reins at Stamford Bridge.
Chelsea are 5/4 (2.25) with Paddy Power to win the match inside 90 minutes and 8/13 (1.62) to run out victors with the help of extra-time or by virtue of penalties.
But Atletico won this trophy as recently as 2010 and it’s worth remembering that Diego Simeone’s side finished fifth in La Liga while winning the Europa League last season – one place higher than Chelsea managed in the Premier League.
Atletico are 21/10 (3.10) with Paddy Power to win in normal time and 6/5 (2.20) to be the team lifting the trophy at the end of the night. The draw is available at 23/10 (3.30).
In the goalscorer markets, Fernando Torres is the favourite to open the scoring and that’s understandable given that he appears to be revelling in the service that Eden Hazard is providing. Torres is 11/2 (6.50) with Paddy Power to score first in this one against his former club.
Chelsea are also likely to include new signing Cesar Azpilicueta in their line-up – the right-back is 50/1 (51.00) to score first but with just two career goals to his name that may be one to avoid.
But one man who cannot be ruled out is Atletico forward Radamel Falcao. The Colombian has not only scored and won his two previous European finals but was also named man of the match.
He’s 6/1 (7.00) to open the scoring here but those long-shot punters out there might instead fancy a nibble at the industry-best price of 80/1 (81.00) for a Falcao hat-trick in Monaco.
The 26-year-old has achieved the feat three times in La Liga in the past year as well as bagging three European hat-tricks in one season for Porto in 2010-11. It’s the value bet in this one.
Part of the reason for that is John Terry’s absence through suspension. While Chelsea coped admirably without him in Munich, this is likely to be a more relaxed occasion and that could mean goals.
Both teams scored four goals in their last home game and with that kind of firepower available the price of 10/11 (1.91) with Paddy Power for over 2.5 goals here makes that the pick of the bets.
|Over 2.5 goals at 10/11 (1.91) with Paddy Power
||Falcao hat-trick at 80/1 (81.00) with Paddy Power|
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Adam Bate is a professional freelance journalist who specialises in football and betting. He is editor of GhostGoal which can be found here - you can also follow Adam on