The group stages are complete and half the teams have now been eliminated. The winner of Euro 2012 will be one of Germany, Spain, Portugal, Italy, England, France, Czech Republic or Greece.
Curiously, the two outside bets both emerged from the same group – Group A. The Czech Republic may have topped the pile but it seems they aren’t convincing the bookies or punters of their worth. William Hill makes the Czechs 40/1 (41.0) shots to win the tournament.
|Euro 2012 - Winner
|Odds courtesy of William Hill
That’s not quite as big a price as you can get on a Greek win in Kiev on July 1.
Fernando Santos’s men squeezed through with a 1-0 win over Russia to move off bottom and into a qualifying spot.
Goalscorer Giorgos Karagounis is banned for the quarter-final and that could harm Greece’s chances. But not as much as the identity of their opponents – the Greeks must find a way past Germany.
As a result, Greece are 50/1 (51.0) outsiders while the perceived inevitability of their defeat to Germany surely contributes to Joachim Low’s side being the 2/1 (3.0) tournament favourites.
Indeed, Germany will fancy their chances against either of their potential semi-final opponents too – Italy or England.
It’s difficult to separate the Azzurri and the Three Lions – and with the likelihood of a Germany semi-final looming large they are each priced at a healthy 8/1 (9.0). A decent price for anyone who wants to support either of these sides to go all the way.
But it’s to the other half of the draw that we must look for the pick of the bets. Spain are the world and European champions and yet the public seem to be cooling towards them.
It’s worth remembering that La Furia Roja won all four knockout games at the 2010 World Cup by the same 1-0 scoreline. Tiki-taka football is more than entertainment – it’s intended to be efficient and the proof is in their trophy cabinet.
Spain face a France side that have underwhelmed thus far – of the teams remaining in the tournament, only the Greeks have scored as few goals as Les Blues.
That’s reflected in the prices with France a 10/1 (11.0) shot to go all the way with William Hill, while Spain are the pick of the bets at a price of 5/2 (3.50) to retain the trophy. But for the value bet, consider backing Portugal.
Although any of the other teams should expect to have to beat both Germany and Spain to win the tournament, there remains a chance the draw could open up for Paulo Bento’s men.
Expect them to beat the Czechs in the quarters so now could be the time to get on Cristiano Ronaldo & Co. at a price of 7/1 (8.0) with William Hill.
|Spain to win Euro 2012 at 5/2 with William Hill
||Portugal to win Euro 2012 at 7/1 with William Hill
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Adam Bate is a professional freelance journalist who specialises in football and betting. He is editor of GhostGoal which can be found here - you can also follow Adam on
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