Malaysia’s changing political landscape

When nominations for the 222 parliamentary and 505 state seats up for contest in Malaysia’s 13th general election closed on April 20, exactly 1,899 candidates had filed their papers -- the largest number of candidates in the history of this Southeast Asian nation of 13.26 million voters.

Surprisingly, 79 independent candidates are vying for parliamentary seats and 190 for state seats – more than double the number of independents in the 2008 general election.  Rarely does an independent candidate win; many, in fact, lose their deposits.

So, why would such a large crop of individuals feel they can make it this time? Simply put, it is a sign of the changing political landscape, and there is a distinct likelihood that it could even change dramatically after polling day, May 5.

Unlike in previous elections, people are excited about the possibility of the federal opposition coalition, the Pakatan Rakyat (PR), or People’s Alliance, dethroning the ruling Barisan Nasional (BN), or National Front , coalition. The BN -– dominated by the Malay-Muslim Umno party -- has been holding power since independence in 1957, first as the Alliance and, since 1974, as the BN.

If that were to happen - and it is not impossible given the sentiment of voters in urban and semi-urban areas - it will almost certainly herald a two-party system. Malaysia now has the BN, a cohesive giant, the PR, a loose coalition of three large parties with divergent ideologies, and several insignificant parties that come alive during elections.

The PR – comprising Parti  Keadilan Rakyat (People’s Justice Party), the Pan Malaysian Islamic Party or Pas, and the Democratic Action Party (DAP)—was cobbled together to fight the BN in 2008. In the past, opposition parties were happy just to dent the armour of the BN, but, in 2008, the PR denied the BN a two-thirds majority in parliament and wrested five states, one of which it later lost due to defections. Now, the PR, hungering for power, senses a kill.||

ALSO READ: 'Ubah' for chaos, bankruptcy: Muhyiddin
ALSO READ: I did not ask Dr M to 'just die': Anwar Ibrahim

If it does win enough parliamentary seats to form the federal government, however, it will find that taking power was the easy part. There is little doubt that their individual ideologies, agendas and egos, will test the ability of the three parties to share power; and the possibility of the coalition unravelling cannot be discounted.



For, the three disparate political entities are held together, apart from the common goal of unseating the BN, by the charisma of one man – Anwar Ibrahim, a former deputy prime minister who was sacked by then prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad. Even then, he is having a tough time: some Pas officials have openly called for their leader, Hadi Awang, to be prime minister if the PR wins.

If the PR wins, there is every indication that the people will enjoy greater freedoms. And, provided it honours its election manifesto, there will be greater transparency, more people-friendly welfare programmes, and reforms where the people want them: in the police, the judiciary and the anti-graft body.

But the biggest fear among non-Malays and many urban Malays is that a win for the PR could encourage Pas to push through its avowed aim of turning Malaysia into an Islamic state.

If the BN retains power -- provided it drops its arrogance, sticks to its manifesto, and caretaker Prime Minister Najib Razak continues to head it -- the people can expect better governance, greater transparency, more welfare handouts, and a more equitable sharing of national wealth.

The biggest fear of educated voters is that a two-thirds majority would send the wrong signal, emboldening the BN to clamp down on freedoms gained since Dr Mahathir stepped down as prime minister in 2003.
There is also the fear that, with the two-thirds majority, the BN would cement its grip on power by using – or abusing --the instruments of government and by amending the law.

Since independence, race has defined the politics of the nation. The first few political organisations that were established -- such as the United Malay National Organisation, the Malayan (now Malaysian) Chinese Association and the Malayan (now Malaysian) Indian Congress – appealed to race. The three parties came together in a coalition called the Alliance, the precursor to the BN.


And although none of the main opposition parties are race-based in theory, in effect, they survive on racial sentiments. The membership of the People’s Justice Party and the DAP is largely Malay and Chinese respectively, and almost all Pas members are Malay.

Some BN politicians have raised the spectre of race riots if the PR were to win. The race-riot bogey has, in the past, frightened people enough to make them vote for the BN. This time, however, Malaysians are more confident of themselves and their fellow-Malaysians. Importantly, Pas has countered by assuring non-Malays that it would protect them in the event of any untoward incident.

Voters have had enough of race-based politics. And it is likely that they will send this message on May 5. If that happens, the main losers will be parties in the BN coalition, such as the MCA and the MIC, which, to a large extent, depend on urban votes.

In such a scenario, not only will the BN have to rethink its race-based politics, the PR, too, will have to make major adjustments.  Most citizens would consider that a victory.

But, the major shift is probably in the perception of ordinary voters that it is they who wield power; or that, they can, and should, influence the decision as to who holds power and how that power is used.

Since independence, the ordinary citizen has been contended to cast his or her vote and accept the result. All this changed after 2008, when voters realised that the BN was not the juggernaut they thought it was. Now, they want to be actively engaged in determining the future of the nation, which helps explain the large number of independents.

Sponsoring independents to draw support away from strong candidates is a strategy that has been frequently used, particularly by the BN, since the seventies. Some of those standing as independents are doing so because they were not selected by their respective parties to contest.

However, that alone does not account for the 269 independents. The fact is, voters do feel more empowered, and they are more vocal. They plan to demonstrate this on May 5. And that is the greatest change in the political landscape of Malaysia.

Watch the latest election updates: