KUALA LUMPUR (May 4): Smartphones will outperform the overall market for mobile phones, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24.9% for the period 2011–17 to reach 1.7 billion units, according to Australia-based independent technology analyst firm Ovum.
Ovum said predictions showed Android as the dominant operating system over the next five years as handset vendors rush to make it their primary smartphone platform.
In the report entitled Mobile Phone and Smartphone Forecast: 2012–17 released Friday, Ovum said that global annual mobile phone shipments would grow at a CAGR of 6.3% between 2011 and 2017, due to the demand from emerging markets where growth continued to fuel handset shipments.
Asia-Pacific would ship over 200 million units by 2016 and was the largest region in volume terms, it said.
Developed markets, such as North America and Western Europe, would be made up of smartphones, although feature phones would play a small role in emerging markets in 2017.
Ovum principal analysts Adam Leach said android would dominate the smartphone market over the next five years, while Apple had defined the smartphone market since it introduced the iPhone in 2007,
“We’re now seeing a sharp rise in the shipment volumes of Android, signaling its appeal to leading handset manufacturers,” said Leach.
The report said Android Smartphones accounted for 44% of the smartphone market in 2011, which significantly rose to 17% in 2010.
However, in 2017, the share will reach 48%, as Android-based smartphones were expected to grow at a CAGR of 26.8% over the forecast period, it said.
Apple’s iOS (iPhone Operating System) would be the second most widely deployed platform in 2017, accounting for 27% of the smartphone market, a slight increase on the 23% share of the market it reported in 2011.
Not far behind Android/iOS duopoly would be the remaining smartphone players.
Leach said that although it would remain behind Android in terms of shipment volumes, Apple will continue to be a key player and innovator in the smartphone market over the forecast period.
“We expect Microsoft, despite its slow start, to have established Windows Phone as a relevant smartphone platform by 2017,” he said.
Ovum said the Windows Phone platform, with the assistance of Nokia, would account for 13% of the smartphone market in 2017.
Despite losing significant market share since its high point in 2009, RIM's (Research In Motion) BlackBerry platform would still represent 10% of the market in 2017, it said.