Forex Analysis: Japanese Yen Recovery Looks Likely to Continue
The Japanese Yen looks likely to continue to recover amid profit-taking before next week’s BOJ rate decision and as risk appetite stumbles.
Talking Points
Japanese Yen Outperforms on Profit-Taking, Risk Aversion in Asia
S&P 500 Futures Hint Sentiment Likely to Remain Under Pressure
US CPI, Fed Beige Book Releases Likely to Pass with Little Fanfare
The Japanese Yen continued to recover as expected in Asian trade as regional stocks fell, boosting demand for the haven-linked currency. Regional stock exchanges fell, reinforcing upward pressure on the haven-linked currency. A variety of catalysts looks to be at work. First, as we discussed earlier in the week, the temporary lull in big-ticket event risk may be giving traders an opportunity to ponder on-coming headwinds from US austerity as the “debt ceiling” and “sequester” deadlines draw closer.
Second, the bar seems set extraordinarily high for next week’s BOJ rate decision after nine weeks of uninterrupted Yen selling. Investors have seemingly priced in a paradigm-shifting dovish turn in monetary policy. If Maasaki Shirakawa and company actually satisfy these lofty expectations, the impetus for speculation will still have been exhausted, leaving the Yen selloff without a driving catalyst. It appears as if the markets are beginning to catch on, sparking profit-taking on short-Yen exposure.On balance, S&P 500 index futures are pointing lower, suggesting overnight trends are likely to carry forward.
Another uneventful day on the European data front shifts the spotlight onward to December’s US CPI report. The headline inflation rate is expected to hold unchanged at 1.8 percent, offering little that can dislodge the standing outlook for Fed policy. The central bank will also release its Beige Book survey of regional economic conditions may offer a better read on overall growth trends in the world’s top economy but its implications going forward are limited at best for now while uncertainty continues to surround the amount of austerity due to hit the economy in the coming months.
Asia Session:
GMT | CCY | EVENT | ACT | EXP | PREV |
23:30 | AUD | Westpac Consumer Confidence (JAN) | 0.6% | - | -4.1% |
23:30 | AUD | Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (JAN) | 100.6 | - | 100 |
23:50 | JPY | Machine Orders (MoM) (NOV) | 3.9% | 0.3% | 2.6% |
23:50 | JPY | Machine Orders (YoY) (NOV) | 0.3% | -7.3% | 1.2% |
23:50 | JPY | Domestic CGPI (MoM) (DEC) | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
23:50 | JPY | Domestic CGPI (YoY) (DEC) | -0.6% | -0.7% | -0.9% |
0:30 | AUD | New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) (DEC) | 2.2% | - | 0.2% (R+) |
0:30 | AUD | New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) (DEC) | 17.9% | - | 9.8% (R+) |
2:00 | CNY | Actual FDI (YoY) (DEC) | -4.5% | -2.0% | -5.40% |
2:00 | NZD | Non Resident Bond Holdings (JAN) | 64.0% | - | 62.7% |
5:00 | JPY | Consumer Confidence (DEC) | 39.2 | - | 39.4 |
Euro Session:
GMT | CCY | EVENT | EXP/ACT | PREV | IMPACT |
7:00 | EUR | EU 25 New Car Registrations (DEC) | -16.3% (A) | -10.3% | Low |
8:15 | CHF | Retail Sales (Real) (YoY) (NOV) | 2.9%(A) | 2.7% | Low |
10:00 | EUR | Euro-Zone CPI (MoM) (DEC) | 0.4%(A) | -0.2% | Medium |
10:00 | EUR | Euro-Zone CPI (YoY) (DEC) | 2.2% (A) | 2.2% | Medium |
10:00 | EUR | Euro-Zone CPI - Core (YoY) (DEC) | 1.5%(A) | 1.4% | Medium |
Critical Levels
CCY | SUPPORT | RESISTANCE |
EURUSD | 1.3248 | 1.3378 |
GBPUSD | 1.5998 | 1.6099 |
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com
To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak
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