Impact of Selangor crisis on national politics

After creating history as a political alliance that could pose stiff competition to Barisan Nasional, Pakatan Rakyat is now facing its most bitter test – the sustainability of a pact that is only slightly more than six years old.

The integrity of the alliance began to shake after PAS raised the issue of hudud, an issue that has upset the moderate and centrist politics Pakatan has practised since 2008.

The cracks among PR component parties became more apparent after PAS president Datuk Seri Abdul Hadi Awang said he would support Tan Sri Abdul Khalid Ibrahim as Selangor menteri besar.

The "Hadi move" challenged the mutual agreement in Pakatan, where the parties entrusted with filling the position of menteri besar have the right to name their leaders without interference from other coalition partners.

Adding to the tension are calls from some PAS central leaders to leave the coalition.

If the "Hadi and PAS move" continues, it will not only have an effect on the future of opposition politics but also on the future of national politics and the masses.

Opinions and commentaries in social media offered a simplistic solution to the problem.

"Let PAS leave Pakatan", "Back out of the decision to remove Khalid" and "PAS has to prioritise Islam ahead of political interests" are among the solutions.

There are others who prefer to point fingers and blame Hadi, Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, Khalid, Azmin Ali or Umno.

To understand the Selangor political crisis, the people have to look back at what the opposition coalition has achieved and the positive impact it has had on national politics and the electorate.

This is what will be lost if Pakatan falls.

These are the risks that PAS and Pakatan have to think about when handling the Selangor crisis and any other issue that could affect Pakatan's sustainability.

Impact on opposition politics

Records show that the opposition could only pose stiff competition to BN when it formed a political alliance during elections.

The alliance is to ensure a straight fight between BN and the opposition.

This is because the first-past-the-post election system in Malaysia guarantees that only the party with the most number of votes wins a seat in the state assembly or in Parliament.

One interesting example of how this works can be seen in Sabah in last year’s general election when BN won several parliamentary seats with fewer than 50% of the votes as votes for the opposition were spread among multi-cornered fights with PR, Sabah opposition parties and independent candidates.

In the history of elections, four alliances were formed among the opposition to compete against BN – Socialist Front in 1969, Gagasan Rakyat in 1990, Barisan Alternatif in 1999 and Pakatan Rakyat in 2008.

(Note: Pakatan Rakyat was formed after the 2008 general election. But cooperation among the main opposition parties – PAS, PKR and DAP – was formed during the election to ensure ony two-cornered fight between BN and the opposition.)

Table 1 shows that BN obtained more than 80% of parliamentary seats when the opposition failed to ensure a two-cornered fight and a strong alternative message.

But when the opposition formed an alliance in the 1969, 1990, 1999, 2008 and 2013 elections, it provided stiff competition to BN.

Pakatan Rakyat, however, is not only an election alliance. It is the only opposition alliance that has survived beyond one election.

From records above, Pakatan could advance to being a political alliance that has the potential to take over Putrajaya if it could strengthen cooperation among the parties, fulfil the promises of change and advance its alternative narrative and compete with BN's development narrative.

If the "Hadi and PAS move" is accomplished, the opposition parties would go back to being territorial and marginal parties that only get the support of a small group of voters.

PAS, for instance, was only able to win a few seats in the east coast states before it formed the first opposition coalition – Barisan Socialis – in 1969.

But when the pact was dissolved, its performance dropped drastically.

It bounced back to give BN stiff competition when it joined forces with Semangat 46 in 1990.

PAS's acceptance increased under Barisan Alternatif and Pakatan Rakyat.

Since 2008, PAS, PKR and DAP have transformed themselves into political parties that are truly nationalistic and inclusive based on their success in getting the support of voters from all races in the 2008 and 2013 elections.

With Pakatan Rakyat's fall, the opposition's hard work as well as the sacrifices and hope of the majority of voters in Malaysia since a decade ago will go to waste.

The opposition parties will become marginal parties and will be exclusive to a small group of voters.

Impact on national politics and electorate

The success of the opposition in posing stiff competition to BN in the 2008 general election introduced a new chapter in Malaysian politics.

For the first time, the dominant one-party system was challenged.

Although the opposition did not take over power nationally, its success in denying BN a two-thirds majority in Parliament in the 2008 and 2013 elections is the first signs of the emergence of a two-party system in Malaysia.

This is important so that the country will have a government that is responsive and transparent and an opposition that is responsible and constructive.

This two-party system will ensure that the people's voices are more important compared with a one-party system as the people would really be the determining factor whether BN or Pakatan wins.

But if the opposition alliance fails, Malaysia will go back to the dominant one-party system which will ignore the people's needs as the ruling party is confident that it wills not be beaten in elections. This is what happened to Malaysia before the reformasi era in 1999.

So, not only will the "Hadi move" shake Selangor but it will also bring about change to national politics and the plight of the people.

These implications are often missed by some opposition leaders and commentators on social media.

PAS and Pakatan at crossroads

The decision about to be made by PAS leaders will determine the future of Pakatan and its potential to compete effectively in the next election.

If they choose the "Hadi move", then they will sacrifice Selangor as the base of Pakatan Rakyat's power.

Following that, the break-up of the opposition coalition will make it easier for BN to regain the support of the people and continue ruling Malaysia for the next 50 years.

But if the PAS leadership chooses to continue being in Pakatan, the Islamist party will create history by realising the potential to challenge BN and curb the influence of the feudal system that has dominated politics for so long.

This path is difficult and if the Selangor crisis is resolved, the spirit of mutual agreement and commitment to bring down BN will help them face other issues that can threaten Pakatan Rakyat (for example, the hudud issue, rights of Malays and non-Malays and more).

It is time for PAS leaders to be brave and hold on to the hopes of the majority of Malaysians who want a new Malaysia.

PAS has to put aside its self-interest and narrow politics.

Instead, it has to choose a goal that is bigger to make Malaysia a country which is just, democratic, inclusive and people-friendly.

This was its promise during the 2013 general election. And in Islam, a promise must be kept. – July 31, 2014.

* Part I appears here.