PERBELANJAAN DOMESTIK JANA EKONOMI M'SIA TAHUN INI

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KUALA LUMPUR, 15 Mac (Bernama) -- RHB Research menjangka ekonomi Malaysia

mengalami satu lagi tahun yang menyaksikan pertumbuhan yang dijana oleh

perbelanjaan domestik pada 2013, dengan dirangsang oleh pelaksanaan

projek-projek di bawah Program Transformasi Ekonomi (ETP).

Firma penyelidikan itu berkata pelaksanaan ETP dan pembangunan perumahan

berkemungkinan menyokong kegiatan pelaburan dan pembinaan negara ini, dengan

dibantu oleh perbelanjaan pengguna berikutan pemberian bantuan tunai dan

kenaikan gaji bagi penjawat awam Julai ini.

"Kami menjangkakan kemungkinan keluaran dalam negara kasar (KDNK) sebenar

kekal pada 5.4 peratus tahun ini selepas meningkat kepada 5.6 peratus tahun

lepas.

"Kami menjangkakan permintaan domestik menjadi pemacu utama pertumbuhan

domestik tahun ini, dengan mengambil kira perbelanjaan pengguna dan perniagaan

yang berdaya tahan," katanya dalam satu nota penyelidikan hari ini.

Firma penyelidikan itu berkata pelaburan swasta berkemungkinan mengekalkan

pertumbuhan dua angka tahun ini manakala perbelanjaan awam dijangka meningkat

pada kadar yang lebih sederhana untuk membantu kerajaan persekutuan mengurangkan

defisit belanjawannya selanjutnya kepada empat peratus tahun ini daripada 4.5

peratus tahun lepas.

RHB Research berkata kerancakan semula pelaburan berkemungkinan menghasilkan

lebih banyak import barangan modal, sekali gus mengurangkan lebihan akaun semasa

imbangan pembayaran bagi negara ini.

Bagaimanapun, lebihan itu akan tetap besar dan memberikan sokongan kepada

ringgit yang, pada asasnya, bernilai kira-kira RM3 bagi setiap dolar AS dengan

aliran modal yang stabil, tegasnya.

RHB Research berkata tekanan inflasi diramalkan meningkat tahun ini tetapi

masih terkawal.

"Ini, bersama dengan persekitaran ekonomi luaran yang mencabar, membayangkan

bahawa Bank Negara mungkin akan mengekalkan Kadar Dasar Semalaman (OPR)nya pada

tiga peratus tahun ini," katanya.

Ia berkata pelonggaran dasar monetari global mungkin dikekalkan dan akan

terus menyokong pertumbuhan ekonomi.

"Ini mungkin meningkatkan permintaan bagi eksport negara ini pada 2013.

Ekoran itu, kami menjangka eksport sebenar berkembang pada kadar yang lebih

pantas pada 2013, walaupun dari asas yang rendah," tegasnya.

Mengenai prospek global, RHB Research berkata ekonomi AS diunjurkan

mengekalkan perkembangannya pada 1.7 peratus tahun ini, manakala zon Euro akan

memperlihatkan tanda-tanda awal pemulihan beransur-ansur daripada kemelesetan.

RHB Research berkata China diramalkan mengekalkan pertumbuhannya pada 7.7

peratus pada 2013, dengan dibantu oleh usaha kerajaan untuk melaksanakan

perbelanjaan prasarana untuk merangsang kegiatan ekonomi.

-- BERNAMA

MKI MKI TOM KY

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